Kerryspot talks to a longtime GOP operative about the effect of the bin Laden videotape broadcast yesterday:

Had a short conversation with Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative, today. Talked about the bin Laden tape, and his analysis echoed much of what you had seen elsewhere - this makes terrorism THE issue of the election, and Bush is now likely to win in something approaching a landslide.

The part that I thought was most worthy of sharing with Kerry Spot readers was when I asked, "What does Osama bin Laden think he's doing here? What's his game? What did he hope to accomplish with this tape?"

"The arrogance of evil," Obi-Wan said, sounding a bit like his movie namesake. "He really thinks the American people will listen to him. Every dictator is like this, and Saddam used to do this all the time when he did interviews with Western media. He's arrogant enough to think that if he speaks to the American people, we will actually come around to his view."

This would fit Osama’s utterly unrealistic expectation of how America would respond to 9/11. He expected us to fold up shop and leave the Middle East, and instead he's sitting around getting cave rash while Afghani women and men just elected a pro-American leader while joyously celebrating democracy in the world's spotlight.

Life is full of disappointments, Osama. My guess is you have some more awaiting you just around the corner.

True, Osama miscalculated when he hatched the 9/11 plot, and he has miscalculated now, thinking this would hurt Bush. I'm not buying the spin that I've seen elsewhere, that Osama really wants to help Bush in order to have Bush for another four years, and thereby help bin Laden's recruiting efforts. That's completely bogus. Osama wants Bush gone, but he has totally miscalculated how to accomplish that.