Powerline on what might be happening in Iowa:

This is from ABC's The Note:

This from the Des Moines Register Poll is potentially really key for Iowa and perhaps beyond: "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied."

Iowa is the Upper Midwest state I've felt most confident about, but if this survey is anywhere near accurate, it's bad news. With twenty-seven percent of the votes cast, anything like an 11-point lead will be hard to make up.