By
Rick Edwards · 02:37 AM · March 07, 2005 ·
AVIAN FLU PANDEMIC: The World Health Organization is warning that we may be on the verge of an avian flu pandemic:
The world is in danger from an avian flu pandemic, and tens of millions may die, the World Health Organisation has warned.
After a brief remission, scientists are again sounding the alarm on the influenza A (H5N1) virus, Z strain.
"The world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic," Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, told a bird flu conference in Vietnam. Just a year ago WHO dismissed such a threat.
However, Scott Dowell, director of Bangkok's International Emerging Infections Program, said: "You have to be cautious with the rhetoric. You can't keep saying the sky is falling month after month and continue to be taken seriously. If there's one thing we know about it, it's unpredictable."
But he added: "We are not ready. We have a better sense of what can and should be done, but we are not ready to contain and control it."
Why the big worry?
There are two reasons: confirmation of the first probable human to human transmission of the virus in Thailand last September and a mortality rate for infection of 75 per cent. Only ebola, with 50 per cent mortality, and rabies, slightly higher, come close. The SARS rate was 9.6 per cent.
With every outbreak the fears of mutation grow. Vietnam is struggling to control the disease, and 12 people have died there since the middle of December.
Dr Dowell said: "This virus is bad news in almost any way you can think of, except for [efficient human-to-human transmission] ... it's highly pathogenic in a whole range of animals including humans, it causes severe disease and death, and it affects a whole range of organs not just the lungs."
The first widely accepted human-to-human transmission case occurred in Thailand in September in a family cluster in Kamphaeng Phet, five hours north of Bangkok. "We did crude modelling on what would have happened if the transmission had been efficient," Dr Dowell said. "The girl died on September 2. In the 21 days until [we] got up there another 600 would have been infected; 10 days after that it would have been 6000."
The influenza outbreak of 1918, often used as a benchmark for infectious disaster, is believed to have killed more than 30 million, but the mortality rate was only 1-2 per cent.
"With this virus the mortality rate has been 75 per cent," Dr Dowell said. "We can't begin to get our heads around it."
Other developments that have raised concerns include: The increasing number of human cases. The virus is resistant to most classes of antiviral drugs. Poultry farmers say it is becoming more potent. Previous outbreaks killed 10 per cent of their flock; now up to 90 per cent are dying.
Ducks are now seen as silent carriers that can shed the virus for up to 17 days through their stools before they get sick.
WHO's spokesman for the Western Pacific region, Peter Cordingley, said the world was lucky with SARS. "When people were transmitting the virus they were already showing signs, so it could be picked up at airports with temperature controls. With [bird] flu you can be infectious before you show any signs."
Ominous indeed, if people are infectious before they know they even have this type of flu.
Also, Sen. Charles Schumer wants $200 million for vaccine makers:
The lethal strain of avian flu that has infected scores of people in Asia could kill millions in the United States — unless the feds stockpile medications and issue $200 million in guarantees to vaccine makers, Sen. Charles Schumer warned yesterday.
"It's deadly," Schumer told reporters at NYU Medical Center. "It mutates, and it can spread quickly, which is a terrible combination."
The virus, first spotted in Hong Kong poultry, has infected 55 people worldwide in the past three months — killing at least 42, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
But the virus could mutate, allowing it to be transmitted from human to human — a nightmare scenario that experts fear ultimately could claim more lives than the 20 million lost in the flu pandemic at the close of World War I.
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference WHO Warns Of Avian Flu Pandemic:
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